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Grêmio sees Serie B title distant, but access is very likely

Grêmio sees Serie B title distant, but access is very likely

Last Sunday (21), the Guild engaged in direct confrontation with the cruise between two of the teams that most aim for the title of the Serie B. However, the draw in the sold-out Arena was a shower of cold water for those who expected the Tricolor would reduce the difference to Fox.

Namely, with the result of 2 x 2, the Guild still 10 points behind the leader cruise, and see the cup of Serie B from a distance. But mathematicians from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) see the probability of access Tricolor Gaucho bordering on 90% at this point.

Grêmio's access probabilities are very high

The probability of Guild gain access to Serie A at the end of the season is very high. At least that's what UFMG mathematicians guarantee. Namely, they have been working for almost two decades in the football field making projections in disputes in Brazilian football. Therefore, they already have some credibility. However, of course, everything is a trend, and sometimes it may not even materialize.

But the fact now is, if the Guild continue with this campaign Serie B, at the end of the year he will be back in the elite of Brazilian football. Namely, mathematicians project that the Tricolor Gaucho it has 87% of possibility to go up. In short, the Immortal is in 3rd place with 44 points, eight above the 5th place tombense which has 36 points.

The general scenario is that the club is well on its way with its goal of returning to Serie A. if the Serie B continue in the same way as it is now, the Guild will definitely be in first. Even the Basque, who is in 4th place, with 42 points, has 60% chances to go up. And the tombense has 16% now, even though he's in 5th place. In short, the only one virtually classified is the leader cruise, which has 99% of possibilities.

Draws distanced Grêmio from the title

Despite statistically guaranteed access, the Guild imagined a different type of dispute in this Serie B. With the initial huge payroll of R$13 million, R$10 million above the second largest payroll (of Basque), O Tricolor aimed at the title. But it ended up stumbling on a very high number of draws for a club that wants the cup.

To get an idea, the Guild has the same number of defeats as the best team in Serie B. Namely, the cruise lost three times so far, same number of times as Tricolor. However, what distances both teams with so many points (10) are precisely the draws. In short, the Fox only tied six times so far. Meanwhile, the Immortal he was equal in 11 opportunities, of the 25 games he played. In addition, the miners left the field victorious 16 times, against 11 for the gauchos. So this all contributed to the celestial have a 92.5% chance of winning the title today, against just 3.1% for Grêmio.

Many Grêmio supporters attribute this distance from Guild in relation to the title to the defensive scheme used by Roger Machado in much of the Serie B. Namely, the team's attack was also slow to gear up, depending a lot on Diego Souza.

Featured photo: Disclosure / Grêmio FBPA

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